Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
